Signs that the plague epidemic in Madagascar is slowing down – but still concerning

4 November 2017 – Since August 2017, 133 people in Madagascar have died of an infection with Yersinia pestis and there are to date 1836 suspected or confirmed cases. Current estimates are that 60% of the cases were pneumonic and urban, instead of the rural flea driven bubonic plague that is endemic in Madagascar. After peaking in mid October, the numbers of new deaths and new cases appear to be slowing down a bit (see below, beware that inconsistencies in testing and assessment create fluctuations and uncertainties in the number of new cases per day).

Date / Cases / Deaths / Average new cases per day
————————————————-
14 Sep 2017 / 28 / 5
30 Sep 2017 / 73 / 17 / 3
3 Oct 2017 / 194 / 30 / 40
5 Oct 2017 / 258 / 36 / 32
7 Oct 2017 / 343 / 42 / 43
8 Oct 2017 / 387 / 45 / 44
9 Oct 2017 / 449 / 48 / 62
10 Oct 2017 / 500 / 54 / 51
11 Oct 2017 / 561 / 57 / 61
13 Oct 2017 / 684 / 57 / 61
16 Oct 2017 / 805 / 74 / 40
17 Oct 2017 / 878 / 80 / 44
18 Oct 2017 / 1032 / 89 / 164
19 Oct 2017 / 1153 / 94 / 121
20 Oct 2017 / 1297 / 102 / —
23 Oct 2017 / 1192 / 124 / 10
25 Oct 2017 / 1309 / 93 / 58
27 Oct 2017 / 1554 / 113 / 122
30 Oct 2017 / 1801 / 127 / 82
1 Nov 2017 / 1836 / 133 / 17

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